29

The crash at Bahawalpur
It was the fateful afternoon of August 17, 1988. Dr Muhammad Arif and A/Hameed were sitting with me in my office when Mirza Muhammad Ali, SP, Special Branch, Rawalpindi, in­formed me that, according to army sources in Rawalpindi, the C-130 carrying the President and others had crashed near Bahawalpur shortly after its take-off. Every­body was stunned. I rushed to IGP Nisar Ah­mad Cheema. Both of us then went to Anwar Za­hid, the Chief Secre­tary, to discuss the crash and its possible repercussions and implications.
Malik Abdul Majeed, Commissioner Bahawalpur, gave us the informa­tion available from the airport tower so far. Our immediate suspicion was sabotage. While we were still trying to get more details, Ch. Aminulla, Commissioner Lahore, came to the office of the Chief Secretary. He said, “The people are sus­pecting Mirza Aslam Beg, Vice Chief of Army Staff, for the crash.”
“How is that possible?” asked the Chief Secretary.
“Because he saw the C-130 going down from his own plane that had taken off immediately after the presidential plane and did not land at Ba­hawalpur or Multan to find out what happened. Instead, he headed off straight to Rawalpindi. His unusual behaviour in the cir­cumstances has in­trigued most people.” When I checked with my staff, they also were getting similar reports about the public reaction. It was strange that such a word should spread so fast.
Anwar Zahid tried to get in touch with Nawaz Sharif, who was in Mur­ree but had already left for Rawalpindi immediately after learning about the crash from Commissioner, Bahawalpur. The Chief Minister went straight to an emergency meeting, called by Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Chairman, Senate. The Chief Secretary arranged to call him out and gave him on phone the available details about the crash. He also told him what the people were saying about Gen. Aslam Beg. Mian Sahib said the General was also in the meeting.
The Chief Secretary asked him about the likely shape of things on which the Chief Minister asked him for his advice instead of replying to his ques­tion. We had already discussed the issue among ourselves and our consensus was that the constitution must be followed in letter and spirit and the elec­tions should take place as already announced. Anwar Zahid gave his advice on the same lines and also gave a hope­ful assessment of the election out­come as we had indicated in our presentation to the late President on August 9.
“Will that assessment still hold after this incident?” asked Nawaz Sharif. The Chief Secretary looked towards me while keeping Mian Sahib on the hold.
I said spontaneously, “Yes. In fact, sympathy wave will improve the prospects. Gen. Zia had his own following and that will swing the outcome totally in favour of the Muslim League.” Anwar Zahid con­veyed my as­sessment to Mian Sahib.
After the phone call was over, Anwar Zahid asked me, “Have we not given him too bright a picture?”
“No, sir, it is quite realistic,” I replied. Ch. Aminulla and Nisar Cheema did not agree with me. They believed that the PPP would sweep the elec­tions. Anwar Zahid agreed with me but doubted that Zia had any following. I, however, stuck to my view. I was vindicated when huge crowds went spontaneously to attend the funeral of the General. The Afghan war had made him a hero to a large section of the society.
Saeed Mehdi, Commissioner, Rawalpindi, informed us later that the high-level meeting had decided to follow the constitution and go ahead with the elections as scheduled. The meeting also decided to honour all decisions of the late President in this regard and make no changes. The advice of An­war Zahid to Mian Sahib was sound and timely. It gave the needed courage and correct direction to those who were deciding the destiny of the country at a critical juncture. Ghulam Ishaq, being the Chairman of the Sen­ate, took over as the acting President, as provided in the constitution. Gen. Aslam Beg became the Chief of Army Staff and Admiral Srohi took over as the Chair­man, Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The IGP and Hameed Aslam Malik, DIG Security, Special Branch, went to the crash site for investigation while Anwar Zahid and I went to Rawal­pindi to see the Chief Minister and attend the funeral
Many leading Muslim Leaguers suggested that Nawaz Sharif should dis­tance himself away from Gen. Zia as that would be advantageous to him politically but he did not agree. He said, “He was my benefactor. I shall al­ways hold him in high regard. I don’t care for the election outcome though I have a feeling that we shall get more votes because of him.” I was impressed by his high moral sense. The impressive fu­neral gathering the next day confirmed his feelings and my initial as­sessment.

The inquiry into the crash. The police initially considered the crash an accident but later registered a case of murder and sabotage. I directed Lt Col. (Retd) Muhammad Ashraf, DIG, Anti-Terrorist Cell, Special Branch, to assist in the investigation, besides Hameed Aslam Malik, DIG Security. The police inquiry and investigation could not find any worthwhile clues to the tragedy. There was no specific prior information from any intelligence agency about any tangible security threat. A threat to the President’s life could be suspected from many sources, including Al-Zulfiqar, PPP, USSR, India and even the US, but for the purposes of investigation, it amounted at the most to conjec­ture.
As the debris had spread over a radius of only a few hundred me­ters at the crash site, it appeared that the plane had hit the ground first and then scattered into pieces and caught fire. If, on the other hand, it had burst in the air, the pieces would have spread over a radius of sev­eral kilometers. The evidence of the eyewitnesses also indicated the same conclusion. Anything like a missile hitting from the outside or any explosion through a device in­side the plane would have blasted the plane high in the air and scattered the debris over a vast area. The behaviour of the plane after the take-off pointed to a lack of con­trol on the hydraulic system or other mecha­nism as, accord­ing to the eyewitness villagers, it was going right and left or up and down, with jerky movements. It hit the ground almost intact. As the front portion and the nose had gone several meters into the ground, some of the bodies were not burnt totally in spite of the inferno caused by the large quan­tity of oil in the burning plane.

The President’s visit was exclusively under army arrangements wher­ever he went during this official military tour. The security ar­rangements at the airport were also under the army control. Even the information about the tour itself was re­ceived by the civil administra­tion from the army channels, not the Presidency. The civil administra­tion did its job correctly as far as it was concerned and there were no security lapses worth the name on its side.
The police security guard at the plane told the investigation team that the technical staff of the plane repaired one of the doors of the plane, while it was parked at the Bahawalpur airport. That door could have flung open in the air, disturbing the balance of the plane. The investi­gation con­sidered all possible angles and assumptions in­cluding the most unlikely. Very re­sponsible army officers brought the luggage and the presents for the VVIPs in the plane. The pilot himself signed the certificate of mechanical fitness of the plane. One thing that was very clear was that the plane did not explode in the air. Therefore, the presence of high explosives was ruled out. Whether the door opened during the take-off or hydraulic controls went haywire could be determined only by the experts.
The police investigation could not give any conclusive opinion as those who could tell the last-minute story had perished with the plane it­self. Al­lama Arif-ul-Husaini, a Shia leader, had been murdered a few days back and the Shias were extremely agitated. The General was hooted and was even called his murderer when he went to attend his funeral at Peshawar. Keeping that aspect in view, the investigation team looked for a suicidal missionary but nothing concrete could be found on that ground also.
The most plausible theory that emerged was that the cockpit crew was rendered paralyzed by a nerve gas immediately after take-off and thereby they lost control of the plane. An expert report indicated that some traces of that gas had been found at the crash site. If so, it could be placed only by one of the technical staff, who was ready to die himself or placed it without knowing its evil effects. (No unauthorized or un­checked person could have access to the plane.) Who could or did actually plant such a gas capsule in the cockpit could not be ascer­tained as most of the evidence had perished with the plane. A very thorough in­vestigation was conducted by all agencies on that aspect, including the army and air force teams, but nothing more than a studied speculation could be made.
The investigation was later conducted also by FIA and several high-level commissions with the help of top national and international experts but nothing came out of it. The U.S. Bureau of Investigations also failed to find anything in spite of the death of the American Ambassador in Pakistan and a senior U.S. Army officer in the crash. Many responsible and well-informed persons have accused America of involvement as Gen. Zia was said to have outlived his usefulness for it after the withdrawal of the Russians from Af­ghanistan. May it be like that but solid evidence was difficult to find. The case still re­mains untraced and shrouded in mystery. Perhaps, as predicted by Qutab Din, it was destined to happen like that.

Uncanny predictions of Qutab Din. Babu Qutab Din, my as­trologer friend, used to come from Sargodha to visit me. In April 1988, he stayed with me for three days and made some startling pre­dictions. During our walk in the Model Town Park, he said, “The stars of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq have gone berserk. He is now doomed. He cannot survive in power.” I was sur­prised but did not take him seriously. In my view, the General was going quite strong. The political system evolved by him was functioning smoothly and there could be no os­tensive threat to his position. When I did not react to his forecast, he was visibly annoyed. He felt insulted as I was not believ­ing him. To get my full attention, he asked me to stop and then said, “You are not listening to me with any interest. Zia will die. Death will hover over him like a vulture after 6th of August this year and he may die any day after that.”
I was naturally shaken but did not show it. To ward off his an­noyance, I said lightly, “I hope he is not killed in some attack or something like that. The security of the President is the responsibility of the Special Branch also and I would be in serious trouble if any lapse occurred in the Punjab, my area of jurisdiction.”
His spontaneous reply was, “I don’t know exactly what will happen to him but it will be only a miracle if he survives. Any way, no harm will come to you.”
He again complained that I was not taking him seriously. However, by that time I had become very attentive. We sat down on a bench. He said he had made his calculations very carefully and many times and every time the conclusion was the same.
“In that case,” I said, with some concern, “Nawaz Sharif will have no future and might go into political wilderness as his mainstay is Gen. Zia.”
“So, this is what you think of him,” he observed tersely.
“No, no,” I protested. “He is very kind to me. I wish him all well. But there is tension between him and the Prime Minister. After Zia, he will be­come weak and will be ultimately thrown out by Muhammad Khan Junejo. This is my assessment.”
“Nawaz Sharif will play a very significant role in the future poli­tics of the country,” Qutab Din replied with confidence and vehemence. “Nobody can harm him. Everything will move in his fa­vour. A time will come when he will help both Zia and Junejo and even their families. His stars are very strong and I am saying this on the basis of my careful calculations.”
I was puzzled, “What will happen to the Assemblies?” I asked.
“The whole system will be wound up,” he replied. (His Punjabi words were: “Sara tanta ee muk jae-ga.”)
I knew the tension then going on between the President and the Prime Minister on many small as well as big issues, especially after the explosion in the army ammunition stores at the Ojhri Camp in Rawalpindi. In a long sit­ting with Malik Naeem, I had expressed my apprehension that the President might use his authority to dissolve the Assemblies but in my heart of hearts I did not believe that he would take this ultimate step. In spite of my inside in­formation about the dif­ferences between the President and the Prime Minis­ter, I did not give much weight to the astrological prediction.
When I heard the announcement regarding the dissolution of the As­semblies on May 29, 1988, I thought there was certainly something in what Babu Qutab Din had foretold. Babu was in Lahore the next day, saying proudly, “Didn’t I tell you?” I ex­pressed my appreciation of his expertise.
Babu Qutab Din was again in my office on August 6. Ch. Muhammad Arshad, A/Hameed and some others were also there when he claimed that Zia-ul-Haq’s days were numbered. I still could not believe him. He took Arshad Chaudhri to the side room of my office and repeated his prediction.
When, on August 17, Mirza Muhammad Ali first gave me the in­forma­tion about the crash of Zia’s plane, Qutab Din’s prediction flashed in my memory.

He met me many times afterwards but I no longer disputed his knowl­edge till he predicted his own death one day. How could he know about his own death? I thought some weakness in his profound knowledge of astrol­ogy must have cropped up. He started crying and told me that he was really going to die after 2 1/2 months. I tried to console him but he was too sure of his astrology. He really died after 2 1/2 months, on January 28, 1989.